Côte d’Ivoire and The Gambia enter their November meetings level on six points in Group C. They will play in Bouaké and Bakau during a six-day stretch of AFCON qualifying that runs from 12 to 17 November. Group K presents a similar contest, with Mali and Rwanda both on six points before their matches in Bamako and Kigali.
Uganda face Botswana on 14 November and again on 17 November. Tanzania meet Nigeria on 13 and 17 November, while Kenya take on South Africa. The three East African hosts already have places at the finals. In each host’s group, the highest-placed remaining side qualifies alongside the host.
The arithmetic of playing a rival twice
A double-header between teams level on points can produce very different tables in less than a week. If one wins both games, it takes six points while the other takes none. If each wins at home, both add three and the gap stays where it was. Two draws preserve the gap as well, but offer teams elsewhere in the group a better opportunity to catch up.
That makes Ghana’s position in Group C particularly interesting. While the two leaders face each other, Ghana have two games against Somalia after taking no points from their opening pair. Even if Ghana win both, how much ground they recover on the leading two depends on what happens in Bouaké and Bakau. The same principle applies to the chasing sides watching Mali and Rwanda trade home fixtures in Group K.
Different stakes for the East African hosts
Kenya’s meetings with South Africa bring former Bafana Bafana striker Benni McCarthy up against his country as Kenya coach. South Africa started with maximum points. For Kenya the games offer two competitive tests against a direct opponent before hosting the finals. For South Africa, points against the hosts count in a contest for the qualifying place available to another country.
Uganda’s supporters have a Saturday evening fixture to mark: the 14 November game against Botswana is listed for 16:00 GMT, or 19:00 in Kampala. The return on 17 November is scheduled for 19:00 GMT, or 22:00 in Uganda. Tanzania’s pair against Nigeria also brings a team already assured of a finals place into direct competition with one still seeking it.
With matchday four complete, each side will have two group games left. Four matches provide a much better picture of a team’s position than the opening pair, but they do not settle every group. The clearest way to read the table is to look first at which teams can still take points from each other and then, in the host sections, at the highest-ranked side still competing for qualification.
